铁路、港口与物流绩效对我国贸易的影响及贸易潜力探析——以“一带一路”国家为例

Analysis of the Impact of Railway, Port and Logistics Performance on China’s Trade and Its Trade Potential——Taking “the Belt and Road” Countries as an Example

“一带一路”概念的提出,给中国对外贸易带来了更多的机遇,贸易便利化使得各国之间交流更加快捷、高效,是创造新的经济增长点的前提和保障。在衡量贸易便利化的各项指标中,铁路、港口与物流绩效是关键所在。因此文章选取铁路运输长度、港口设施建设指数以及物流绩效为核心解释变量,并选取高速公路指数、基础设施指数、GDP、人口数、经济关联度等5个辅助解释变量,构造引力模型,从静态和动态两个角度分析其对我国贸易的影响,根据引力模型的理论和实际贸易额测量我国贸易潜力情况。实证结果显示,“一带一路”沿线国家的铁路长度、港口设施建设指数以及物流绩效指数与我国对外贸易高度正相关,给我国对外贸易发展带来了极大的促进效应;贸易潜力方面,根据测算结果,亚美尼亚、格鲁吉亚、阿塞拜疆、白俄罗斯、荷兰、约旦、巴基斯坦为贸易潜力巨大型国家,这些国家可以成为我国贸易出口的首选区域。

The concept of“one belt,one road”brings more opportunities to China's foreign trade.Trade facilitation makes exchanges between countries faster and more efficient,and is the premise and guarantee for creating new economic growth points.Among the indicators that measure trade facilitation,railway,port and logistics performance are key.Therefore,this paper selects the railway transportation length,port facility construction index and logistics performance as the core explanatory variables,and selects five auxiliary explanatory variables such as highway index,infrastructure index,GDP,population,and economic relevance to construct the gravity model from static.And the dynamic two angles to analyze its impact on China's trade,according to the theory of gravity model and the actual trade volume to measure China's trade potential.The empirical results show that the railway length,port facility construction index and logistics performance index of the countries along“the belt and road”are highly positively correlated with China's foreign trade,which has brought great promotion effect to China's foreign trade development;As a result,Armenia,Georgia,Azerbaijan,Belarus,the Netherlands,Jordan,and Pakistan are countries with huge trade potential,and these countries can become the preferred regions for China's trade exports.