基于ARIMA模型的橡胶沥青路面状况衰变预测研究

Study on Decay Prediction of Rubber Asphalt Pavement Condition Based on ARIMA Model

为提高橡胶沥青路面使用性能,加强路面养护管理,分析橡胶沥青路面使用性能衰变预测指标与影响因素,建立ARIMA模型,对橡胶沥青路面的使用性能破损状况指数PCI进行预测。采用SPSS21.0软件,结合实体工程路面状况PCI监测数据,验证了ARIMA模型的可行性,并计算了沥青路面PCI的发展趋势。结果表明,利用ARIMA模型预测的橡胶沥青路面寿命比普通沥青混凝土路面延长了6年,ARIMA模型能够准确地预测沥青路面PCI衰变规律,对橡胶沥青路面采取养护措施的时间和养护决策提供了支持。

In order to improve the rubber asphalt pavement performance,effectively strengthen the pavement maintenance management.This paper analyzes the service performance decay prediction index and influencing factors of rubber asphalt pavement,establishes ARIMA model and predicts the service performance damage index PCI of rubber asphalt pavement.The SPSS21.0 software was used to verify the feasibility of ARIMA prediction model and calculate the development trend of PCI of asphalt pavement combined with PCI monitoring data of physical engineering pavement conditions.The results show that the life of rubber asphalt pavement predicted is 6 years longer than that of common asphalt concrete pavement by ARIMA model.The ARIMA model can accurately predict the PCI decay law of asphalt pavement,and provide support for the time and maintenance decision of rubber asphalt pavement.