小概率事件在煤矿安全中的启示

The enlightenment of small probability events in coal mine safety

小概率事件是指一个事件的发生概率很小,在一次试验中是几乎不可能发生的,但在多次重复试验中是必然发生的。统计学上,把小概率事件在一次实验中看成是实际不可能发生的事件,一般认为等于或小于0.05或0.01的概率为小概率。调查显示,小概率事件原理在日常实际生活中具有很强的实用性。针对煤矿安全管理中常见的问题,谈论分析小概率事件对煤矿安全管理的启示:人的安全行为最为关键;隐患排查做到“小概率”降为“零概率”,防范于未然;实践新的管理方法——NOSA安健环体系。

Small probability events refer to events that have a very small probability and are almost impossible to occur in a single experiment,but are inevitable in repeated experiments.The investigation shows that the principle of small probability event has strong practicability in daily life.In view of the common problems in coal mine safety management,the analysis of small probability events shows that human safety behavior is the most critical,the“zero probability”of hidden danger investigation should be achieved and NOSA safety and health environment system should be adopted.