基于前景理论的运输通道出行方式选择研究

A Study of Travel Mode Choice of Transport Corridor Based on Prospect Theory

为使出行者的出行方式选择决策能够体现出行者的主观偏好特征,考虑出行者在出行方式比选时面对损失和收益的不同态度,研究一种前景理论与灰色关联方法相结合的运输通道出行方式选择方法。选取出行方式的经济性、便捷性、快速性、舒适性、准时性和安全性构建原始决策矩阵,借鉴奖优惩劣的思想,利用[-1,1]线性变换算子对原始决策矩阵进行规范化。以出行方式的正负理想方案作为参照点,结合灰色关联方法建立前景价值矩阵,进而计算各出行方式的综合前景值。以出行方式的前景值最大为选择依据,然后运用多项Logit(MNL)模型计算运输通道内出行方式的分担率。以兰州至宝鸡运输通道为例进行分析,研究出行者对高速大巴、既有铁路和高速铁路的选择行为。结果显示,3种出行方式的分担率分别为13.45%,28.0%,58.55%,相较于效用最大的出行决策方式,所建模型的计算结果与实际情况较为符合,最大误差在3%以内,并分析了高速铁路在不同定价策略及速度下分担率的变化情况。

In order to make travel mode choices reflect subjective preference characteristics of travelers,different attitudes of travelers towards loss and gain are considered in a comparison of different travel modes.A method of travel mode selection based on prospect theory and grey relational method is proposed.An original decision matrix of travel modes is constructed by economy,rapidity,convenience,comfort,safety,and timeliness of travel modes.Referring to the idea of rewarding the good and punishing the bad,the original decision matrix is normalized by using[-1,1]linear transformation operator.The positive and negative ideal schemes of travel modes are regarded as reference points,then gray value correlation method is used to establish a prospect value matrix,and comprehensive prospect value of each travel mode is calculated.The maximum foreground value of travel modes is regarded as the basis of choice,and then a multinomial Logit model is used to calculate sharing rate of the travel modes in transport corridor.Taking the Lanzhou-Baoji transportation corridor as a case study,the selection behaviors of travelers for high-speed buses,general-speed railways,and high-speed railways are studied.The results show that the sharing rates of the three modes of travel are 13.45%,28.0%,and 58.55%,respectively.Compared with the most effective travel decision-making method,the calculation results of this model are more consistent with actual situations,and the maximum error is within 3%.The changes of the sharing rate of high-speed railway under different pricing strategies and speeds are analyzed.