好天气会增加分析师盈余预测乐观偏差吗?——以分析师企业调研为背景

Will Good Weather Increase the Optimistic Bias of Analysts’ Earnings Forecast?Evidence from Analysts’ Site Visits

本文基于行为金融学理论研究天气对分析师盈余预测乐观偏差的影响,以2012~2016年A股上市公司为研究对象,通过匹配分析师调研数据和各地天气数据研究后发现:调研日天气越好,分析师盈余预测乐观偏差越大,尤其当管理层能力和分析师学历越低,以及分析师跟踪上市公司数量越少时,好天气对分析师盈余预测乐观偏差的影响越大。本文的研究既从分析师角度拓展了资本市场参与主体非理性决策的相关文献,又突破了经典金融学理论框架,为分析师盈余预测乐观偏差提供了一种天气视角的解释。

Based on behavioral finance theory,this paper studies the impact of weather on the optimistic bias of analysts’earnings forecast.Taking the A-share listed companies in China during 2012-2016 as the sample,and by matching the analysts’site visiting data and the local weather data,it is found that the better the weather on the visiting day,the greater the optimistic bias of the analysts’earnings forecast.Especially when the management ability and education level of analysts are lower,and the number of listed firms following by analysts is smaller,the impact of good weather on the optimistic bias is greater.On the one hand,this paper extends the relevant literature on the irrational decision-making of the capital market participants from the perspective of analysts;on the other hand,it breaks through the theoretical framework of classical finance,which provides an irrational explanation for the optimistic bias of analysts’earnings forecast.