2001—2017年上海市卫生总费用影响因素及发展趋势分析

Analysis on the Influencing Factors and Development Trend of Shanghai Health Total Cost from 2001 to 2017

目的:分析和预测上海市卫生总费用的影响因素和发展趋势。方法:以人均卫生总费用为因变量,选取宏观环境、投入、过程、结果方面共12个指标为自变量,进行主成分分析及相关回归,并利用ARIMA模型预测上海市卫生总费用变化趋势。结果:人均生产总值、诊疗总人次、肿瘤死亡专率对人均卫生总费用有显著影响,医疗机构床位数与人均卫生总费用呈一定相关性;预计上海市卫生总费用将继续保持增长趋势,到2025年达到4 480.98亿元。结论:上海市未来卫生总费用增长形势严峻,建议提高认识,加强对恶性肿瘤高风险人群的筛查和健康教育,革新公立医院管理发展思路,将卫生总费用的增长路径调整到合理趋势上来。

Objective To analyze and predict the influencing factors and development trends of total health expenditure in Shanghai.Methods Taking the total per capita health expenditure as the dependent variable,12 indicators including macro environment,input,process and result were selected as independent variables,principal component analysis and related regression were carried out,and ARIMA model was used to predict the trend of total health expenditure in Shanghai.Results Per capita GDP,total number of patients in diagnosis and treatment,and the rate of tumor death had a significant impact on the total cost of health per capita.The number of beds in medical institutions was related to the total cost of health per capita.It is expected that the total cost of health in Shanghai will continue to grow.By 2025,it will reach 448.09 billion yuan.Conclusion The future growth of total health expenditure in Shanghai is grim.It is recommended to raise awareness,strengthen screening and health education for high-risk populations of malignant tumors,reform the management development of public hospitals,and adjust the growth path of total health costs to a reasonable trend.