配电网规划中电力负荷预测方法研究综述

Research Review on Power Load Forecasting Methods in Distribution Network Planning

电力负荷预测是电力系统设计环节“发-配-输-用”的重要工作之一。电力负荷预测结果的精度直接影响电力系统运行的安全性、稳定性和经济性,因此选择恰当的电力负荷预测方法尤其重要。回顾了电力负荷预测方法的发展历程与现状,研究了电力负荷预测的特点。系统地分析了当前电力负荷预测方法和原理,归纳出当前电力负荷预测方法主要分为线性模型方法、非线性模型方法和混合线性模型方法三种类型。通过比较不同的电力负荷预测方法提出了尚需解决的问题,同时对未来电力负荷预测方法研究方向作了展望。

Power load forecasting is one of the important tasks in the design and development of power system.The accuracy of power load forecasting results directly affects the safety,stability and economy of power system operation.Therefore,it is especially important to choose an appropriate power load forecasting method.This paper reviewed the development history and current situation of power load forecasting methods,and studied the characteristics of power load forecasting.Through systematic analysis of current power load forecasting methods and principles,it was concluded that current power load forecasting methods are mainly divided into three types:linear model method,nonlinear model method and hybrid linear model method.By comparing different power load forecasting methods,the problems that need to be solved were put forward,and the research direction of future power load forecasting methods was prospected.