黎巴嫩真主党与叙利亚关系探析

An Analysis on Hezbollah-Syria Relations

黎巴嫩真主党自1982年诞生以来,即与叙利亚之间的关系错综复杂,在不同时期呈现出不同的特点。1982-1989年为相互警惕的磨合期;1989-2000年是真主党依赖叙利亚的联合期;2000-2011年发展成为平等伙伴关系;2011年叙利亚内战爆发至今,双方关系更为密切并发生了短期的角色逆转。二者关系的恒量和实质是彼此借重和相互利用,地区局势的变化则是关系演变的永恒变量。伊朗和以色列对这种关系的产生、发展起到关键作用。双方联合的事实对二者本身、黎巴嫩国家和地区局势都产生了重大影响。只要戈兰高地问题存在、巴沙尔政府不被推翻、教派掩盖下的地区国家博弈持续,双方的复杂关系就会一直存在。

Since the birth of Hezbollah in Lebanon in 1982,the relationship between Hezbollah and Syria has been complicated,showing different characteristics in various periods.Period 1982-1989 showed mutual vigilance,whereas 1989-2000 is a real joint period in which Hezbollah depended on Syria.Afterwards 2000-2011 developed into an equal partnership.Later on since the civil war broke out in 2011,the relationship has become closer and there has been a short-term reversal of roles.The constant quantity and essence of the relationship between the two sides is to rely on each other and make use of each other,while the change of regional situation is the eternal variable of the evolution of the relationship.Both Iran and Israel have a direct impact on the creation and development of this relationship.The fact that the two sides are united has a significant impact on both sides themselves and on the situation in Lebanon.As long as the Golan Heights issue exists and the state game covered by sectarianism persists,the complex relationship between the two sides will never fade away.