国际直接投资溢出效应的测定——基于欧盟国家的荟萃分析

Measurement of Spillover Effect of Foreign Direct Investment——A Meta-analysis Based on EU Member States

国际直接投资的溢出效应是国际经济学领域的传统话题。尽管有大量和可信的理论依据表明国际直接投资对东道国生产力和经济增长具有积极溢出效应,但是实证分析却给出了不确定或至少不一致的证据。本研究采用荟萃分析方法,对2003-2018年间69篇以欧盟国家为研究对象的关于国际直接投资溢出效应研究文献的系统编码,得到2789个偏相关系数效应值和2786个弹性系数效应值,涉及126603731个样本观测值。通过荟萃合并分析发现:国际直接投资具有正向溢出效应,但是各研究间异质性较大。通过荟萃回归分析发现:以弹性系数为效应值的荟萃回归分析效果不理想;以偏相关系数为效应值的荟萃回归分析效果较为理想;国际直接投资溢出效应在国家之间有较大的差异;样本层面因素和变量操作因素显著影响国际直接投资溢出效应的结论;研究方法项不显著影响国际直接投资溢出效应的结论。

The spillover effect of foreign direct investment is a traditional topic in the field of international economics.Although there are many and credible theoretical evidence that foreign direct investment has a positive spillover effect on productivity and economic growth of host countries,empirical analysis provides uncertain or at least inconsistent evidence.In this paper,a meta-analysis method is used to systematically code 69 studies on Spillover Effects of foreign direct investment in EU countries from 2003 to 2018.2789 partial correlation coefficient effects and 2786 elastic coefficient effects are obtained.A meta-merger analysis involving 126,603,731 sample observations reveals that foreign direct investment has positive spillover effects,but the heterogeneity among the studies is large.Through meta-regression analysis,we can find that the effect of meta-regression analysis with elasticity coefficient as effect value is not ideal;the effect of meta-regression analysis with partial correlation coefficient as effect value is ideal;the spillover effect of foreign direct investment is quite different among countries;the conclusion that sample level factors and variable operation factors significantly affect the spillover effect of foreign direct investment is the research method;item does not significantly affect the spillover effect of foreign direct investment.