“海丝”对我国海洋旅游经济的影响研究

Evaluation and Convergence Research of the Influence of “Sea Silk” on China’s Marine Tourism

文章基于PEST理论,构建了“海丝”对海洋旅游影响的评价指标体系,运用网络层次分析法(ANP)确定权重,运用极值法进行数据标准化处理。本文以“海丝”前后共8年沿海11省市自治区为样本,测度了“海丝”影响我国海洋旅游的时空差异,采用σ收敛和β收敛,考查时空差异是否有逐渐收敛的稳态趋势。最后实证结果表明:随着时间推移,“海丝”对我国海洋旅游的影响逐渐显现,但这些影响是不平衡的,政治影响大于经济影响,福建、广西、河北等地受“海丝”影响,其海洋旅游效率出现强势逆袭;虽然“海丝”对海洋旅游影响的区域差异总体不收敛,但在泛珠三角和长三角区域呈现局部俱乐部收敛,在环渤海地区不具有该收敛特征。提出借力“海丝”,效率优先和重点突破的发展对策。

this paper constructs the evaluation index system on the effect of“Haisi”of the Marine tourism,using the analytic hierarchy process(ANP)to determine the weights and the extremism method to manipulate the data standardization,the differences time and space influence of Marine tourism in China are measured.The tests ofσandβconvergence are made.Results show that over time,“Haisi”impact on the Marine tourism in our country gradually revealed,but these effects is not balanced.Political influence is greater than the economic impact.The Marine tourism at Hainan,Zhejiang and Guangdong are greatly influenced by“Haisi”.The Marine tourism at Fujian and Guangxi are a strong counter attack.It is not overall convergence of regional differences in the effect of Marine tourism.the club convergence presents in the pan-pearl river delta and Yangtze river,but not presents in the circum Bohai Sea region.At last,the paper puts forward the development countermeasures of“Haisi”,efficiency priority and key breakthrough.