1951—2016年中国沿海地区气温与降水量的时空特征

Temporal and spatial characteristics of temperature and precipitation in China′s coastal areas from 1951 to 2016

我国沿海地区是重要的生态功能地区,人口高度密集、经济高度发达,明确该地区气温与降水量时空动态变化特征对于促进区域生态环境保护和生态建设成果的维持均具有重要意义。本研究采用Mann-Kendall(M-K)检验法分析该区气温和降水量的年际与季节时空演变格局。结果表明:(1)沿海地区及6个子区域(东北沿海地区、华北沿海地区、黄淮沿海地区、江淮沿海地区、江南沿海地区和华南沿海地区)年均气温及季节气温均呈显著上升趋势;年降水量无明显变化趋势,季节降水量在东北沿海地区秋季、华北沿海地区夏季、黄淮沿海地区春季及江南沿海地区春季和夏季均存在显著上升趋势,其中江南沿海地区的季节降水量变化最剧烈。(2)沿海各子区域年际气温和降水量均存在次数不等的突变,突变时间点各不相同。(3)在空间范围内,6个子区域年际和季节气温趋势倾向率均呈自北向南逐步增加的空间分布特征,趋势变化程度各不相同。(4)沿海地区气温和降水量的演变趋势及突变是多个因素共同作用的结果,其影响因素主要包括下垫面的改变、人口与能源消耗的增加、厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜现象及台风等方面。本结果有助于反映我国沿海地区气温和降水量空间变化特征,为制定气候变化应对策略提供科学依据。

China′s coastal areas are important ecological areas with highly dense population and developed economy. It is of great significance to clarify the temporal and spatial dynamics of temperature and precipitation in this area, and to promote the maintenance of regional ecological environment protection and ecological construction achievements. In this study, the Mann-Kendall(M-K) test was used to evaluate the interannual and seasonal temperature, and spatial evolution patterns of air temperature and precipitation in this region. The results showed below:(1)The annual average temperature and seasonal temperature of six sub-regions, situated in coastal areas(Northeast, North China, Huanghuai, Jianghuai, Jiangnan and South China) showed a significant upward trend. There was no obvious change trend in annual precipitation, but the seasonal precipitation significantly increased in autumn in Northeast, summer in North China, spring in Huanghuai and spring and summer in Jiangnan, among which the seasonal precipitation in Jiangnan was the one that most dramatically changed.(2)The interannual temperature and precipitation in different coastal subregions have different times of abrupt change, and the time point of abrupt change is different.(3)Within spatial range, the interannual and seasonal temperature trend rates of the six subregions show that the spatial distribution behavior of gradual increase from north to south, with different degrees of trend changes.(4)The evolution trend and abrupt change of temperature and precipitation in coastal areas are the result of multiple factors, such as the change of underlying surface, the population increase, energy consumption, El Niňo/La Niňa events and typhoons. The results of this study are helpful to comprehend the spatial characteristics of temperature and precipitation variations in coastal areas of China, and provide a scientific basis for formulating a reasonable climate change response strategy.