基于威布尔分布的大型水轮发电机定子F级绝缘寿命分析

Life Analysis of Class F Insulation for Stator of Large Hydro-generator based on Weibull Distribution

大型水轮发电机定子绝缘可靠性是决定整个发电机寿命的关键因素,而发电机寿命预测直接影响着发电机继续运行或更新改造的决策。由于我国大型水轮发电机起步较晚,对定子绝缘寿命的研究通常是基于老化试验的基础,目前还缺少基于实际运行数据的相关分析。文中选取13台已连续运行超过40年的发电机为研究对象,结合威布尔分布理论,采用中位秩回归法确定威布尔分布参数。研究表明,大型水轮发电机定子F级绝缘寿命符合形状参数为9.569,尺度参数为42.53的威布尔分布。

The reliability of stator insulation system of large hydro-generators is the key factor determining the life of the whole generator,and the life prediction of generators directly affects the decision of the generator to continue to operate or renovate.Due to the late start of large domestic hydro-generators,the study of lifetime for stator insulation system is usually based on aging tests,and there is currently no correlation analysis based on actual operational data.The writer selected 13 generators that have been running continuously for more than 40 years as the research object,combined with Weibull distribution theory,and used the median rank regression method to determine the Weibull distribution parameters.The research shows that the life of class F insulation for stator of a large hydro-generator meets the Weibull distribution with a shape parameter of 9.569 and a scale parameter of 42.53.