宁波市跌倒死亡率变化趋势分析

Trend of mortality of fall in Ningbo

目的分析2002—2018年宁波市居民跌倒死亡率的变化趋势,为加强居民跌倒死亡防制提供依据。方法收集2002—2018年宁波市居民跌倒死亡报告资料,统计跌倒粗死亡率、标化死亡率、年龄别死亡率和跌倒类型等指标,计算年度变化百分比(APC)分析跌倒死亡率变化趋势。结果2002—2018年宁波市居民年均跌倒粗死亡率为16.81/10万,标化死亡率为11.18/10万,呈逐年上升趋势(P<0.05)。男性跌倒标化死亡率为11.57/10万,高于女性的10.41/10万(P<0.05);男性、女性跌倒标化死亡率均呈上升趋势(P<0.05)。农村居民跌倒标化死亡率为11.25/10万,高于城市居民的11.07/10万(P<0.05);城乡居民跌倒标化死亡率均呈上升趋势(P<0.05)。跌倒死亡率随年龄增加呈上升趋势(P<0.05),其中<5岁组有小高峰,跌倒死亡率为1.81/10万,65岁以后开始迅速上升,85岁以后达到最高。以同一平面跌倒死亡为主,11 141例占68.25%。跌倒死亡发生地点以家庭为主,11 829例占72.46%。结论2002—2018年宁波市居民跌倒死亡率呈上升趋势;男性、农村居民、5岁以下儿童和65岁及以上老年人是跌倒死亡的高危人群,发生地点主要在家庭。应对重点人群开展针对性跌倒预防控制,以减少跌倒伤害。

Objective To analyze the trend of the fall death rate in Ningbo,and to provide reference for prevention and control of fall death.Methods The data of fall mortality in Ningbo from 2002 to 2018 was collected to calculate the crude mortality rate,standardized mortality rate,age specific mortality rate and the proportion of fall death types.Joint Point Regression was used to evaluate annual percentage change(APC)of fall mortality.Results The average annual crude and standardized mortality rate of fall in Ningbo was 16.81/100 000 and 11.18/100 000,showing an upward trend from 2002 to 2018(P<0.05).The standardized mortality rate of fall was 11.57/100 000 in men and 10.41/100 000 in women,and the difference was statistically significant(P<0.05),both showing an upward trend from 2002 to 2018(P<0.05).The standardized mortality rate of fall was 11.07/100 000 in urban residents and 11.25/100 000 in rural residents,and the difference was statistically significant(P<0.05),both showing an upward trend from 2002 to 2018(P<0.05).The mortality rate of fall increased with age(P<0.05).The mortality rate of fall showed a small peak in children less than five years old(1.81/100 000),and began to rise rapidly in people aged 65 years or over and peaked again in people aged 85 years or over.There were 11 141 cases died of falling on the same plane,accounting for 68.25%.Fall deaths occurred mainly at home,with 11 829 cases(72.46%).Conclusion The mortality rate of fall in Ningbo increased from 2002 to 2018.The males,urban residents,people aged less than five years and aged 65 years or older have high risk of death from fall,who were targets for prevention and control strategies of fall.