大气PM10与呼吸系统疾病死亡的关系研究

Impact of ambient PM10 on respiratory disease mortality

目的了解大气PM10污染对居民每日呼吸系统疾病死亡例数的影响,为保护易感人群,评价人群健康效应提供依据。方法收集金华市2014—2018年空气污染物和气象因素资料,将空气污染物浓度与GB 3095—2012《环境空气质量标准》二级标准进行比较,分析PM10的季节分布特征。采用时间序列的广义线性模型(GLM)建立单污染物和多污染物模型,分析大气PM10对居民每日呼吸系统疾病死亡例数的影响。结果2014—2018年金华市大气PM10的浓度中位数为58μg/m^3,呼吸系统疾病死亡4 891例。大气PM10浓度呈现冬春季高,夏秋季低的季节特征。单污染物模型分析结果显示,大气PM10浓度每升高10μg/m^3,滞后2 d的总人群和≥65岁人群呼吸系统疾病死亡风险分别增加1.23%(95%CI:0.27%~2.20%)和1.24%(95%CI:0.26%~2.23%);多污染物模型分析结果显示,PM10单独引入SO2、单独引入NO2或同时引入SO2和NO2时,总人群和≥65岁人群呼吸系统疾病死亡风险比单污染物模型均增加(P<0.05);PM10单独引入SO2或同时引入SO2和NO2时,男性居民呼吸系统疾病死亡风险比单污染物模型增加(P<0.05)。结论大气PM10增加居民每日呼吸系统疾病死亡风险,对65岁及以上老年人群的影响较为明显。

Objective To study the impact of inhalable particles(PM10)on the daily respiratory disease mortality in Jinhua,and to provide basis for health evaluation and protection for susceptible population.Methods The data of air pollutants and meteorological factors in Jinhua from 2014 to 2018 were collected.The concentrations of the air pollutants were compared with the secondary standard of GB 3095-2012 Environmental Air Quality Standard,and the seasonal distribution characteristics of PM10 were analyzed.The generalized linear models(GLM)of single pollutant and multi-pollutants were built to analyze the impact of atmospheric PM10 on the number of death from respiratory diseases.Results A total of 4 891 cases died of respiratory diseases from 2014 to 2018 in Jinhua.The median of PM10 concentration was 58μg/m^3,showing high in winter and spring but low in summer and autumn.In single pollutant models,the mortality risks of respiratory diseases of two-day lag among whole population and people aged 65 years or over increased by 1.23%(95%CI:0.27%-2.20%)and 1.24%(95%CI:0.26%-2.23%)with every increase of 10μg/m^3 in PM10.In multi-pollutants models,when introduced SO2,NO2,or SO2+NO2 with PM10,the mortality risks of respiratory diseases of two-day lag among whole population and people aged 65 years or over were higher than that in single pollutant models(P<0.05).When introduced SO2 or SO2+NO2 with PM10,the mortality risks of respiratory diseases in males were higher than that in single pollutant models(P<0.05).Conclusion Ambient PM10 can increase the mortality risk of respiratory diseases,especially for the elderly people aged 65 years or over.