金普新区地表覆盖格局演变及预测分析

Land Cover Pattern Evolvement and Predicition Analysis in Jinpu New Area

针对国家级新区享受各项政策红利,但无有效的定量评价方式对国家级新区发展情况进行监测、对国家级新区未来土地发展状况无高置信度的预测方式等问题,利用转移矩阵及相关模型定量地对地表覆盖格局变化进行了分析;基于CA-Markov模型,对未来一段时间的土地空间格局进行了预测;通过定量分析与实验结果表明:(1)金普新区成立前土地变化情况多为自然地物间的变换,金普新区成立后有大规模的人工地物变化;(2)基于CA-Markov模型对土地空间格局进行分析可信度较高,可以服务于土地结构演变分析。

State-level new area enjoys all kinds of policy bonus,but there is no effective quantitative evaluation method to monitor its development and there is no high confidence level forecast approaches for the situation of its land development in the future.In view of these problems,this paper quantificationally analyzed the change of the surface cover pattern using transfer matrix and related models.The spatial pattern of land for the next period of time is predicted based on the CA-Markov model.Through quantitative analysis and experiment,the result shows that:(1)the changes of land before the founding of the Jin Pu new area is mostly the transformation between natural objects,and there are large-scale changes of man-made features after the establishment of the new area;(2)Analysis of the spatial pattern of land based on the CA-Markov model has a higher credibility,and it could be used to serve the analysis of land structure evolution.