美对中25%的惩罚性关税究竟惩罚了谁?——基于价格分担和福利损失分担等的量化测度

Who is Punished by the 25% Punitive Tariff of the United States?——Quantification Measurement Based on Price Sharing and Benefit Loss Sharing

由于涉征商品本身的必需品类归属,且替代产地极其有限,因此美国对中国2 500亿美元进口商品加征25%的惩罚性关税,对美国的冲击要大于对中国的冲击。在加税的价格分担方面,美国消费者和中国企业将分别分担加税的64%和36%,前者是后者的1.78倍。就加税的社会福利损失而言,加税后总体社会福利损失8.45%和17.45亿美元,其中美国消费者剩余损失16.15%和21.24亿美元,中国出口企业生产者剩余反而会增长5.06%和3.80亿美元。另外,加税后中国外贸生产(就业)虽然会下降8.32%,但外贸出口总值反而会逆势增长5.07%。由此,美对中加征惩罚性关税,最终惩罚的主要是美国自己,而非中国!

Because of the necessity category of the goods itself and the extremely limited alternative production area,the United States’punitive tariffs on Chinese exports has much more impact on the United States itself than on China.In terms of price-sharing of the 25%tax increase,U.S.consumers and Chinese companies will share 64%and 36%respectively,the former is 1.78 times of the latter.In terms of social welfare losses,the overall social welfare loss after tax increases is 8.45%and 1.745 billion dollars.Among which the U.S.consumer surplus loss 16.15%and 2.124 billion dollars and the surplus of Chinese exporters will increase by 5.06%and 380 million dollars.In addition,China foreign trade production(employment)will drop 8.32%after tax increase,but the total value of foreign trade exports will rise 5.07%in reverse trend.So the United States’punitive tariffs on China will mainly punish the US itself,but not China.