基于GM(1,1)的居民消费与流通经济增长耦合关系研究

Research on the Coupling Relationship between Resident Consumpt ion and Circulation Economic Growth Based on GM(1,1)

基于2000-2016年统计数据,构建灰色GM(1,1)模型实证分析居民消费与流通经济增长的耦合性关系.研究发现,耦合度系数表现较为稳定,其中2000-2004年间表现为逐年交替,2005-2010年处于流通滞后,2011-2015年处于消费滞后;耦合发展指数保持稳步上的趋势,其中2007-2009年出现略微下滑,2009-2013年出现跳跃式增长;耦合度系数与耦合发展指数的灰色预测为优质、上升耦合态势,反应居民消费与流通经济在内部生产要素配合中的有效性,居民消费将进一步与流通经济增长形成良性互动.文章从推动流通组织创新、优化消费结构、强化流通经济和居民消费系统的内生增长动力、挖掘电子商务中的消费经济等方面提出实现居民消费与流通经济增长良性协同发展的对策.

Based on the statistical data from 2000 to 2016,this paper constructs a grey GM(1,1)model to empirically analyze the coupling relationship between residents’consumption and circulation economic growth.The results show that the coupling coefficient is relatively stable,among which the performance of 2000-2004 alternates year by year,the circulation lags in 2005-2010 and the consumption lags in 2011-2015;the coupling development index maintains a steady trend,with a slight decline in 2007-2009 and a leap-forward growth in 2009-2013;the grey prediction of the coupling coefficient and the coupling development index is of high quality and superior quality.Increasing coupling situation reflects the validity of the coordination between residents’consumption and circulation economy in internal factors of production.Residents’consumption will further interact with circulation economy growth.This paper puts forward some countermeasures to realize the benign and coordinated development of residents’consumption and circulation economic growth from the aspects of promoting circulation organization innovation,optimizing consumption structure,strengthening the endogenous growth power of circulation economy and residents’consumption system,and tapping the consumption economy in electronic commerce.