农业保险巨灾风险分散模式的比较与选择

A Research on the Mechanism of Agricultural Insurance Catastrophe Risk Dispersion

农业保险对于分散农业风险、稳定农业生产收益、保障农民切身利益起到了至关重要的作用。然而,农业巨灾风险的存在,削弱了保险公司在农户之间、作物之间、地区之间分散风险的能力,使得农业保险的经营面临着财务稳定性和发展的可持续性问题。直至目前,我国农业保险巨灾风险分散机制仍不健全,尽快建立和完善国家层面的农业保险巨灾风险分散体系对防范农业巨灾风险、分担农业大灾损失具有重要意义。本文通过蒙特卡洛仿真,测算了直保公司购买商业性再保险、政府为农业保险公司兜底、政府出资购买再保险和政府通过政策性农业再保险公司经营再保险四种模式下,农业保险各参与方的平均支出、波动情况、最大支出和赔付缺口,从风险分散体系各方支出的角度来探讨我国农业保险巨灾风险分散模式的选择。经过研究,本文认为政府通过政策性农业再保险公司经营再保险是分散我国农业保险巨灾风险的最优选择,既能有效分散巨灾风险、平滑赔付波动,同时又能使政府资金的使用效率保持在较优水平。

Agricultural insurance plays a vital role in diversifying agricultural risks,stabilizing agricultural income and protecting farmers’interests.However,the existence of agricultural catastrophe risks weakens insurers’risk dispersion capability among farmers,crops and regions,and therefore the operation of agricul-tural insurance faces the problem of financial stability and sustainability of development.Up to now,China still lacks an effective agricultural catastrophe decentralization mechanism.It is of great significance to es-tablish a nationwide agricultural catastrophe risk dispersion system for preventing agricultural catastrophe risks and sharing losses from agricultural disasters.Through Monte Carlo simulation,this paper simulated the following risk diversification modes,including purchasing commercial reinsurance by agricultural insurance companies,government safety cushion for insurance companies,government purchasing commercial reinsur-ance and non-commercial agricultural reinsurance operated by government.By comparing average payout,fluctuation,maximum payout and payout gap of various agricultural insurance participants,we explored the choices of the risk dispersion mode in China from the perspective of various parties’expenses in the risk di-versification system.Based on our research,we hold the view that non-commercial agricultural reinsurance operated by government is the best choice which can effectively disperse the catastrophe risk,smooth the payout fluctuations,and keep the efficiency of government funds at a superior level.