B2C电子商务信用风险测度与网商免疫力提升路径

B2C E-commerce Credit Risk Measurement and Network Business Immunity Improvement Route

应用ANN方法对B2C电子商务信用风险各指标权重进行测度,利用GRA确定信用风险因素之间的直接关联矩阵,运用DEMATEL方法分析风险因素,由此确定各指标中心度和原因度。结果表明市场信息对称程度、惩罚力度、感知信誉和安全技术等风险因素对B2C电子商务信用风险影响程度较大。基于二分类Logistic回归模型验证信用因素重要程度。根据信用风险测度结果在市场监管、信息不对称、是否长期合作和网络融资模式下分别提出了基于免疫监视、免疫防御、免疫自稳和规则制度创新的网商免疫力提升路径。

This paper uses ANN method to measure the weight of each index of B2C e-commerce credit risk,uses GRA to determine the direct correlation matrix between credit risk factors,and uses DEMATEL method to analyze the risk factors,so as to determine the centrality and causality of each index.The results show that market information symmetry,punishment,perceived reputation,security technology and other risk factors have a greater impact on the credit risk of B2C e-commerce.Then,it verifies the importance of credit factors based on the binary logistic regression model.Finally,according to the results of credit risk measurement,it proposes the immunity enhancement path of internet merchants based on immune surveillance,immune defense,immune self-stabilization and rule system innovation from the market supervision,information asymmetry,long-term cooperation and network financing modes.