土地流转政策对地区农民收入的影响研究——来自湖南省的经验证据

Research on the Impact of Farmland Transfer Policy on Regional Farmers’ Income: Empirical Evidence from Hunan Province

研究目的:确认土地流转政策是否能够促进地区农民收入增长。研究方法:依据湖南省2001—2016年县级区域的面板数据,采用合成控制法这一反事实分析框架来估计土地流转政策对地区农民人均收入的影响效果,并运用微观数据分析进行稳健性检验。研究结果:与合成的无政策地区相比,实施了土地流转政策地区的农民人均收入并未显著提高,即土地流转政策并未显著提高地区农民收入水平;在微观层面,土地流转也无法提高农户家庭人均收入。研究结论:当前土地流转政策难以产生对地区整体农民收入的正向影响,是由于土地流转无法对农业生产效率、非农业务、租金收入及政府转移支付收入等影响农民收入的因素产生有效影响。

The purpose of this study is to test whether farmland transfer policy can promote regional farmers’income growth.This paper uses the synthetic control method as a counter factual analysis framework to estimate the impact of farmland transfer policy on per capita income of farmers in the region based on the panel data at the county level in Hunan Province from 2001 to 2016,and the robustness test was conducted by micro-data analysis.The results show that the per capita income of farmers in the areas where the farmland transfer policy was implemented has not been significantly increased compared with the synthetic non-policy areas,indicating that the farmland transfer policy has not significantly improved the regional farmers’income level;at the micro level,farmland transfer cannot improve the per capita income of farmers.In conclusion,it is difficult for current farmland transfer policy to produce a positive impact on the overall farmers’income in the region due to the fact that farmland transfer cannot have an effective impact on agricultural production efficiency,non-agricultural business,rental income,government transfer payment income and other factors that affect farmers’income.