农业化学投入与农业经济增长脱钩关系研究——以河南省为例

Decoupling Relationship of Agricultural Chemical Investment and Agricultural Economic Growth——Taking He’nan Province as an Example

[目的]在测算河南省农业化学投入与农业经济之间脱钩弹性的基础上,进一步分析河南省农业化学投入增减的影响及时空格局演化,为该省农业资源环境保护提供依据。[方法]采用Tapio脱钩模型分析河南省农业化学投入与农业经济之间的脱钩关系,利用LMDI分解模型对影响农业化学投入的影响因素进行分解,运用K-means方法对河南省农业化学效率进行聚类分析。[结果]1993—2016年河南省农业化学投入总体呈“先升后降”态势,农膜、农药和化肥投入分别于2012,2014和2016年出现下降趋势;23 a来河南省农业化学投入与农业经济增长态势出现了从相对脱钩和扩张性负脱钩并存到相对脱钩再到开始出现绝对脱钩趋势的转变;耕地效应是农业化学投入增加的主要推动力量,效率效应对农业化学投入具有明显抑制作用,规模效应的影响不明显;从空间格局上看,豫东南地区农业经济增长对农业化学生产资料依赖程度较高,豫中和豫西北地区农业化学参与农业经济增长的程度较低。[结论]整体上看,河南省农业化学投入对农业经济增长呈现出了脱钩状态,但在区域内部还存在着较大的空间差异,未来河南省应采取差异化的农业化学控制政策。

[Objective]On the basis of calculating the decoupling elasticity of agricultural chemical input and agricultural economy,the influencing factors of agricultural chemical input and its spatio-temporal pattern evolution were further analyzed to provide bases for the protection of agricultural resources and environment in He’nan Province.[Methods]Based on the Tapio decoupling model,the decoupling relationship between agricultural chemical input and agricultural economy in He’nan Province was analyzed.LMDI decomposition model was used to decompose the influencing factors of agricultural chemical input,and K-means method was used to cluster the agricultural chemical efficiency in He’nan Province.[Results]From 1993 to 2016,the input of agricultural chemistry in He’nan rose firstly and declined lately.The inputs of agricultural film,pesticide and fertilizer showed their respective downward trends in 2012,2014 and 2016.In the past 23 years,the trend of the relationship between agricultural chemical input and agricultural economic growth had changed from relative decoupling and expansive negative decoupling to relative decoupling,and then to a trend of absolute decoupling in He’nan Province.The cultivated land effect was the main driving force for the increase of agricultural chemical input,and the efficiency effect had a significant inhibitory effect on agricultural chemical input,and the scale effect was not obvious.From the perspective of spatial pattern,the growth of agricultural economy in the southeastern of He’nan was highly dependent on the agricultural chemical input,and the degree of agricultural chemistry participating in agricultural economic growth in the center and the northwest of He’nan Province was relatively low.[Conclusion]On the whole,agricultural chemical input and economic development of He’nan Province showed a decoupling state,but there were still large spatial differences within the region.Differential agricultural chemical control policies should be adopted in the future.