内生技术变迁视角下金融发展与产业结构升级

Financial Development and Industrial Structure Upgrading: the Perspective of Endogenous Technological Change

基于内生技术变迁视角,采用1985—2016年中国产业结构升级、金融发展、劳动力、技术创新相关数据,建立VAR模型进行脉冲响应函数分析和方差分解,并进一步构建VEC模型。结果表明:金融发展与产业结构升级具有长期均衡且显著为正的关系,同时产业结构升级和技术创新对金融发展扰动的响应具有滞后性。从长期看,金融发展对产业结构升级的贡献度超过劳动力。从短期看,金融发展与产业结构升级短期偏离修正系数较小,恢复均衡的速度较慢,且金融发展对产业结构升级的短期波动具有显著影响。

Based on the perspective of endogenous technological change,this paper uses data from 1985-2016 China's industrial structure upgrading,financial development,labor,and technological innovation to establish a VAR model for impulse response function analysis and variance decomposition,and further construct a VEC model.The conclusions of the study indicate that financial development and industrial structure upgrading have a long-term equilibrium and a significant positive relationship,while industrial structure upgrading and technological innovation have a lag in response to financial development disturbances.In the long run,the contribution of financial development to the upgrading of industrial structure will exceed the contribution of labor.In the short run,the short-term deviation of financial development and industrial structure upgrading is small,the recovery equilibrium is slow,and financial development has a significant impact on short-term fluctuations in industrial structure upgrading.