基于熵权法北京冬奥会社会风险预警指标权重研究

Weight of Social Risk Early-Warning Index of Beijing Winter Olympics Based on Entropy Weight Method

将北京冬奥会置于整个社会大环境中去考量,最大程度还原北京冬奥会具有的“社会属性”,这无论是对北京冬奥会本身还是对社会的良性发展都具有重要的理论意义和现实价值。通过熵权法,确定北京冬奥会对经济、政治、公共安全、文化影响、环境和民众情绪6个一级指标及其所属的二级指标引发社会风险相对影响程度的熵权值。研究结果表明:北京冬奥会对经济、政治和公共安全3个维度影响程度较大,比较容易引发社会风险;在经济维度中北京冬奥会对低谷效应和挤出效应影响程度较大;在政治维度中北京冬奥会对国内问题国际化影响程度较大;在公共安全维度中北京冬奥会对恐怖主义影响程度较大;在文化影响维度中北京冬奥会对扩大负面宣传影响程度较大;在环境维度中北京冬奥会对自然环境的破坏和废气处理影响程度较大;在民众情绪维度中北京冬奥会对生活成本提高、侵权扰民和扰乱生活秩序影响程度较大。

Putting Beijing Winter Olympic Games in the overall social environment to consider and restoring the“social attributes”of Beijing Winter Olympic Games to the greatest extent is of great theoretical significance and practical value to both Beijing Winter Olympic Games itself and the benign development of society.The entropy weight method is adopted to determine the entropy values of relative influence degree of social risks caused by Beijing Olympic Games on six first-level indicators of economy,politics,public security,cultural influence,environment and public sentiment and the second-level indicators in this paper.The results are as follows:The impact of Beijing Winter Olympics on the three dimensions of economy,politics and public security is relatively large,which is easy to cause social risks;In the economic dimension,the impact of Beijing Winter Olympics on the trough effect and extrusion effect is greater;In the political dimension,the international influence of Beijing Winter Olympics on domestic issues is greater;In the dimension of public security,the influence of Beijing Winter Olympics on terrorism is greater;In the dimension of cultural influence,the negative publicity of Beijing Winter Olympics is greatly affected;In the environmental dimension,the impact of Beijing Winter Olympics on natural environment damage and waste gas treatment is relatively large;In the dimension of public sentiment,the impact of Beijing Winter Olympics on the increase of living cost,infringement on people and disturbance of life order is greater.