基于GC-TOPSIS模型的水资源管理绩效评价及障碍度分析

Performance evaluation and obstacle degree analysis of water resources management based on GC-TOPSIS Model

建立基于开发利用、用水效率和限制纳污的水资源管理绩效评价体系,采用博弈论确定的组合系数构建GC-TOPSIS模型,对2005-2016年西安市的水资源管理绩效进行评价。同时,采用障碍度模型对影响管理绩效的关键因素进行分析研究。研究结果表明:2005-2016年西安市水资源管理综合绩效整体呈上升趋势,绩效水平由中级转为良好,单准则层绩效与综合绩效的变化趋势基本一致,均具有良好的发展态势;开发利用准则层障碍度持续增高,是水资源管理绩效的最大障碍因素,而用水效率和限制纳污两个准则层障碍度则不断下降;指标用水总量变化率和人均日生活用水量将是今后一段时期的主要障碍因子。开源节流、培养居民自主节水意识是提高西安市水资源管理绩效的关键。

The evaluation index system of water resources management performance was established based on development and utilization,water use efficiency and restriction of pollution.The GC-TOPSIS model was constructed using the combination coefficients determined by game theory,and the water resources management performance of Xi'an City from 2005 to 2016 was evaluated.In addition,the key obstacle indicators were analyzed by an obstacle degree model.The results showed that the overall performance of water resources gradually increased during the 12 years.The performance degree changed from middle level to good,and the trend of single-strategy layer performance and comprehensive performance were basically the same,and both had a good development trend.In terms of obstacle degree,the criterion layer obstacle degree of development and utilization was increasing continuously,which is the main obstacle to the water resource management performance.The criterion layer obstacle degree of water use efficiency and restriction of pollution showed a decreasing trend.In the future,the main obstacle indicators are the rate of change in total water use and per capita daily living water.Cultivating residents'awareness of water saving and open source and expenditure reduction was crucial to the urban water resources management performance improvement.