基于Budyko假设的黄河下游非一致性径流模拟

Runoff simulation of non-uniform in the lower reaches of the Yellow River based on Budyko hypothesis

径流变化直接影响着流域水资源合理开发与利用,径流量的统计与模拟至关重要。为分析非一致性水文条件下径流模拟的不确定性问题,以黄河下游地区为研究对象,采用灰色关联法确定黄河下游径流的主要影响因素,采用滑动样本熵法对水文序列进行突变检验,同时采用在Budyko假设基础上构造出的Zhang模型进行径流模拟。结果表明:降水和气温是径流产生的主要因素(γ>0.5);黄河下游的降水、气温水文气象时间序列在1990年前后发生了较大的变化,破坏了水文序列的一致性;改进后的Budyko模型模拟精度更高(NSE>0.9),表明Zhang模型可用在黄河下游非一致性水文气象序列的径流模拟中。

Runoff changes directly affects the rational development and utilization of water resources in the basin,and the statistics and simulation of runoff are essential.In order to analyze the uncertainty of runoff simulation under non-uniform hydrological conditions,the lower reaches of the Yellow River are studied.The main influencing factors of runoff in the lower reaches of the Yellow River were determined by grey correlation method,the sliding sample entropy was used to test the hydrological sequence,and the Zhang model was constructed based on the Budyko hypothesis.The results showed that precipitation and temperature are the main factors for runoff generation(γ>0.5).The precipitation and temperature hydrological meteorological time series in the lower Yellow River have undergone major changes around 1990,which destroyed the consistency of hydrological sequences.The Budyko model has a higher simulation accuracy(NSE>0.9),indicating that it can be used in the runoff simulation of the inhomogeneous hydrometeorological sequence in the lower Yellow River.