基于PSO-PPE模型的宁夏扬水灌区水土资源承载力综合评价

Comprehensive evaluation of soil and water resource carrying capacity in Ningxia irrigation area based on PSO-PPE model

为定量评价宁夏扬水灌区水土资源承载力,从水资源、社会、经济、生态环境4个系统层选择20个指标构建了农业水土资源承载力综合评价指标体系、采用粒子群优化投影寻踪(PSO-PPE模型)对宁夏扬水灌区(红寺堡灌区、固海固扩灌区)各分区2015年水土资源综合承载力进行了评价。结果表明:宁夏扬水灌区水土资源承载力总体水平较低,其中红寺堡区以及固海固扩区的多个分区的承载力评价值小于2,评级等级只有Ⅳ级,且处于Ⅲ级的4个分区最佳投影指标值也较低(最高为2.809)。从各分区4个系统的评价结果来看,各分区的水土资源承载力的主要影响因素有差异,应当结合各分区水土资源实际特点,从水资源利用、水资源生态维护和社会经济外部支持等多方面入手,制定科学合理的水土资源管理与利用措施,以改善灌区水土资源承载能力。

In order to construct a comprehensive evaluation index system of agricultural water and soil resources carrying capacity,this paper selected 20 indexes from four system layers of water resources,society,economy and ecological environment.Then we analyzed the comprehensive carrying capacity of water and soil resources in each region of Ningxia irrigation area in 2015 using the PSO-PPE model based on the particle swarm optimization.The result showed that the overall level of soil and water resources carrying capacity of Ningxia irrigation area is relatively low.The evaluation value of carrying capacity of multiple districts is less than 2 including Hongsibao and Guhai,with the rating grade onlyⅣ.Even the best projection index values of the four partitions in gradeⅢare also low(the highest value was 2.809).According to the evaluation results of the four systems,the main influencing factors of soil and water resource carrying capacity are different in different regions.Therefore,we should take into account the actual characteristics of water and soil resources in different regions,as well as the utilization of water resources,ecological maintenance of water resources and external support of social economy,and then formulate scientific and reasonable measures,for the management and utilization of water and soil resources,and to improve the bearing capacity of water and soil resources in the irrigated area.