2018/19榨季国内外食糖市场回顾与2019/20榨季展望

Domestic and Foreign Sugar Markets in 2018/19 Crushing Season and Their Prospects for 2019/20 Crushing Season

2018/19榨季,国际食糖市场由供给过剩转变为供求基本平衡格局,国际糖价先涨后跌,之后区间震荡。国内食糖由于种植面积增加和收购价格稳定处于增产周期,消费量总体平稳,2018/19榨季截至6月底销糖量和产销率增幅显著,主要是因为严打走私和保障措施实施有助于国产糖销售;国内期货价格和现货价格总体以先下跌后回升、区间震荡为主;食糖进口量同比略增,非正规进口大幅下滑。展望2019/20榨季,国际食糖市场或将出现300万~670万t供给短缺,印度和泰国将减产而巴西稳定,国际糖价将区间震荡运行;国内食糖产量基本持平,仍保持当年度产不足需态势;后期需关注印度糖业政策、主产国天气、糖醇比价关系、中国食糖进口政策和走私糖严打成效等因素。

In 2018/19 crushing season,the international sugar market changed from oversupply to basic balance of supply and demand,international sugar prices rose first,then fell,and then followed by an interval fluctuation.Due to the increase of planting area and the stabilization of purchasing price,domestic sugar market entered the increasing production cycle,consumption was stable on the whole,while sugar sales volume and sales rate increased significantly in 2018/19 crushing season consolidated as of July.The main reasons were the anti-smuggling efforts and safeguard measures conduced to domestic sugar sales.Domestic sugar futures prices and spot prices fell first,then rose,and were dominated by interval fluctuation.Sugar import volume increased slightly year-on-year,and informal imports fell sharply.In 2019/20 crushing season,international sugar market may be short of 3.0 million to 6.7 million tons,production in India and Thailand will decrease,while in Brazil will be stable;international sugar price will fluctuate in the interval;domestic sugar production will basically flat and still remain supply shortage situation.In the future,it is necessary to pay attention to the sugar policy of India,the weather in the major producing countries,the specific value relationship between sugar and alcohol,sugar import policy in China as well as the effect of preventing sugar smuggling.