人口预期寿命的经济损益分析

Economic Profit and Loss Analysis of Life Expectancy

随着社会发展、科技进步以及医疗卫生条件的改善,人们的平均预期寿命也在提高,并对社会经济发展造成影响,因此对人口预期寿命的经济收益与成本分析成为日益重视的课题。借鉴Roson的特征价格模型构建经济模型,为国内外学者对人口预期寿命的经济价值研究提供了一个新的思路。实证分析并检验得出的结论为:人口预期寿命的增长会提升消费与投资,增加社会总收入;而与此同时,人口预期寿命增长也将增加养老基金支出与医疗基金支出,增加社会总成本,形成社会压力。因此,政府应在大力发展老龄化产业的同时,采取相应措施以应对人口预期寿命变动所带来的经济成本。

With the development of society,the progress of science and technology and the improvement of medical and health conditions,the average life expectancy of people is also rapidly increasing,and impacting on social and economic development,so the economic income and cost analysis of life expectancy of population has become an increasingly important topic.This paper builds an economic model by referring to Roson's(1974)characteristic price model,which provides a new idea for domestic and foreign scholars to study the economic value of population life expectancy.The conclusion of empirical analysis and test is:the increasing of life expectancy of the population will increase consumption and investment,increase social income;Meanwhile,the increasing of population life expectancy will also increase the expenditure of pension fund and medical fund,increase the total social cost and form social pressure.Therefore,the government should take measures to deal with the economic cost caused by the change of life expectancy while vigorously developing the aging industry.