经济政策不确定性、融资约束与企业投资

Economic Policy Uncertainty,Financing Constraint and Firm Investment

为应对后金融危机时代复杂多变的国际形势,适应结构转型时期深刻变革的国内经济,中国政府相继出台一系列调控政策,以稳定经济发展,提振市场主体活力。然而频繁调控并未遏制企业投资持续下滑的趋势,金融摩擦仍有待进一步缓解。基于这一背景,首先建立理论模型,分析经济政策不确定性、融资约束与企业投资的关系,并利用2009—2018年中国A股上市公司季度数据,实证检验经济政策不确定性对企业投资水平和企业投资效率的影响。研究结果表明,较高的经济政策不确定性会通过直接渠道和间接渠道导致企业投资水平下降,其影响机制主要包括企业跨期投资决策变化的直接效应和企业融资约束加剧的间接效应。此外,经济政策不确定性对企业投资效率具有异质性影响,主要体现在对投资过度企业和投资不足企业非效率投资所产生的不同效应。

With the purpose of stabilizing economic development and enhancing market entities vitality,a series of policies have been implemented by the government to cope with changeable world situation during the post financial crisis era,and to suit reformatory domestic economy under the transitional phase.However,downward trend of total investment rate in China has not been stopped by frequent government intervention and regulation.Meanwhile,financial friction has not been mitigated either.Under this background,a theoretical model is built to illustrate the relationship between the economic policy uncertainty,financial friction and firm investment.Then,quarterly data of listed companies in Chinese A-Share Market during the period of 2009-2018 is used to test the impact of economic policy uncertainty on firm investment level and efficiency.Several conclusions have been found:firm investment will be reduced due to higher degree of economic policy uncertainty through both direct channel and indirect channel,including the direct effect on firms'intertemporal decision making and indirect effect on firms'financing constraint.In addition,different influences of the economic policy uncertainty on heterogeneous firms have been further studied,showing that the firm investments of firms who invest over reasonable level and firms who invest below reasonable level have been influenced by the increase of economic policy uncertainty differently.