基于卷烟材料参数的细支烟烟气有害成分预测模型

Prediction models for harmful components in mainstream smoke of slim cigarette based on cigarette material parameters

为研究卷烟材料参数(滤嘴通风、滤棒压降、卷烟纸定量、卷烟纸透气度、卷烟纸助燃剂质量分数和卷烟纸助燃剂中钾钠比)对细支烟主流烟气焦油、7种有害成分、烟碱释放量及卷烟危害性指数(H)的影响,采用中心组合设计结合正交设计法制备了50个卷烟样品,利用线性回归和逐步回归法建立了基于卷烟材料参数的10个多因素预测模型,并根据统计学原理中交叉验证标准差(RMSECV)最小的原则筛选出最优预测模型。结果表明:10个模型的预测精度良好,平均预测相对偏差在3.11%~8.10%之间,且对不同卷烟材料参数具有良好的适用性。

In order to investigate the effects of cigarette material parameters(including filter ventilation,filter rod pressure drop,cigarette paper grammage,air permeability of cigarette paper,combustion improver content in cigarette paper,and K/Na ratio in combustion improver)on the deliveries of tar,nicotine,the 7 harmful smoke components,and the hazard index(H)of cigarette mainstream smoke,50 cigarette samples were prepared according to a central composite design combined with orthogonal design methods.Ten multi-factor prediction models based on cigarette material parameters were established by linear regression and stepwise regression methods,and the optimal models were selected according to the statistical principle of minimum RMSECV(Root mean squares error of cross validation).The results showed that the ten models had good prediction accuracies,with the average relative deviations of prediction between 3.11%and 8.10%.The models were well adaptive for different cigarette material parameters.