面向公共卫生的人类空间移动与接触行为模型

A Review of Modeling Human Travel and Social Contacts for Public Health Management

理解人类空间移动和接触行为对于疾病预防与控制至关重要。从人类动力学角度分析人类行为规律及其物理统计特征,分别对比研究各种人类空间移动与接触行为模型,包括:布朗运动、随机游走、空间网络、图案(Motifs)模型、二部图模型、引力(Gravity)模型、接触频率、接触次数分布、社会网络等,分析流行病暴发过程中人类空间移动与接触行为变化模型,论述人类空间移动与接触行为建模面临的难题。为面向公共卫生应急管理的疾病传播预防与控制措施研究提供模型基础。

It is significant to understand the patterns of human mobility and social contacts for epidemic prevention and control. This paper analyses the regularities and the statistical properties of human behaviors at the perspective of human dynamics. Various models of human mobility and social contacts are comparatively investigated, including Brownian movement, random walks, spatial network, Motifs, bipartite graph model, gravity models, contact rate, the distribution of daily contact number, social networks, etc. The models of human behavior changes in the course of epidemic outbreak are also analyzed. The challenges of modeling human mobility and social contacts are discussed. The models discussed are the foundation of studying epidemic prevention and control in the field of public health emergency management.