基于蒙特卡罗法的AUV任务可靠性分析

Analysis on the Mission Reliability for AUV Based on Monte Carlo Method

AUV(AUV-Autonomous Underwater Vehicle)有较高可靠度是它能够在规定时间内圆满、高效地完成任务的必要条件。传统的故障树对于描述系统可靠性模型非常方便,但是对于大型复杂系统,可靠性参数的计算量将大幅增加,计算比较困难。针对传统故障树计算复杂系统可靠性参数困难的情况,本文采用故障树最小割集与蒙特卡罗法相结合的方法,建立了水下无人航行器系统可靠性模型,求取故障树最小割集,结合蒙特卡罗方法进行可靠性分析。仿真验证AUV的可靠性预计、分配和评估。

The high reliability of AUV is the necessary condition for it to complete the task satisfactorily and efficiently within the specified time. Traditional fault tree is very convenient for describing the reliability model of the system, but for large and complex system, this will significantly increase the computation of reliability parameters, thus the calculation is difficult. Because it to calculate the reliability parameters of complex systems by the traditional fault tree, this paper adopts the method of combining the minimum cut set of fault tree and Monte Carlo method to establish the reliability model for Underwater Autonomous Unmanned Vehicle Systems for minimizing cut set of fault tree, and to analyse the reliability with Monte Carlo’s method. The simulation validates the reliability prediction, distribution and evaluation of AUV.