2010—2016年广西脑卒中死亡率及变化趋势分析

Analysis on mortality and trend of stroke in Guangxi from 2010 to 2016

目的分析广西脑卒中死亡率及其变化趋势,为今后开展脑卒中防控工作提供科学依据。方法收集2010-2016年广西国家级死因监测点脑卒中死亡病例。应用Excel 2013、SPSS 19.0进行统计分析,计算脑卒中粗死亡率、标化死亡率,并分性别、年龄、城乡以及脑卒中亚型进行对比分析。采用χ^2检验进行率的比较,采用年度变化百分比(APC)分析死亡率的年度变化趋势。结果2010-2016年广西脑卒中粗死亡率波动于97.33/10万~122.13/10万,脑卒中平均粗死亡率为114.41/10万,APC为1.84%,变化趋势无统计学意义(P>0.05);标化死亡率呈现下降趋势,APC为-5.50%,变化趋势有统计学意义(P<0.01)。2010-2016年男性脑卒中粗死亡率均高于女性,农村脑卒中粗死亡率均高于城市,差异均有统计学意义(P<0.01)。城市脑卒中粗死亡率呈明显上升趋势,APC为8.72%,变化趋势有统计学意义(P<0.01)。脑卒中以脑出血为主,历年构成比均超过50%。脑卒中死亡率随年龄的增长而增加,≥85岁年龄组达最高;75~84岁与≥85岁年龄组脑卒中死亡率呈下降趋势,APC分别为-5.27%和-14.46%,变化趋势均有统计学意义(P<0.05,P<0.01)。结论广西脑卒中死亡率处于全国平均水平,以脑出血为主,男性高发,应加大高危人群健康宣教力度,降低人群危险因素水平。

Objective To analyze the stroke mortality and mortality trend in Guangxi,and to provide the scientific basis for the prevention and control of stroke in the future.Methods Death cases of stroke were collected from all national death cause monitoring points from 2010 to 2016 in Guangxi.The Excel 2013 and SPSS 19.0 were used for statistics analysis,the crude mortality and standardized mortality were calculated,the gender,age,urban or rural areas and stroke sub-types were compared and analyzed.Theχ^2 test was used to analyze the data,the annual percent change(APC)was used to analyze the annual change trend of mortality.Results From 2010 to 2016,the crude mortalities of stroke in Guangxi were between 97.33/105 and 122.13/105,the average crude mortality was 114.41/105,APC was 1.84%(P>0.05);the standardized mortality of stroke decreased year by year(APC=-5.50%,P<0.01).The male crude stroke mortalities were significantly higher than the female crude stroke mortalities,and the rural crude stroke mortalities were significantly higher than the urban crude stroke mortality(P<0.01)from 2010 to 2016.The urban crude stroke mortality had the increasing trend,APC was 8.72%(P<0.01).The main cause of stroke was the cerebral haemorrhage,the constituent ratios of past years were all>50%.The stroke mortality increased with age,the stroke mortality of≥85 years group was the highest;the stroke mortality of 75-84 years group was lower than that of≥85 years group,showing the decreasing trend,APC of≥85 years group and 75-84 years group were-5.27%and-14.46%,respectively(P<0.05 or P<0.01).Conclusion The stroke mortality of Guangxi was at the national average level,the cerebral hemorrhage was the main cause,the male incidence was high.Health education should be strengthened among high-risk groups,and the level of risk factors should be reduced.