城市开发区人口分布预测及其规划价值——以西安市高新区为例

Population distribution projection in urban development zones and its planning value: Taking Xi’an High-tech Zone as an example

人口分布预测对城市开发区等小区域产业布局、市政设施、公共服务规划等具有重要参考价值。以西安市高新技术开发区为例,使用历次人口普查、土地利用、主城区变化等数据,采用灰色理论预测人口和城区扩展,采用格网化方法绘制人口格网密度分布图,并比例推测和预判中长期人口分布变动趋势。研究发现西安高新区2020年人口分布仍较集中且密度增大,2035年人口继续向近郊区蔓延,2050年人口分布情景取决于诸多可变因素。预测结果启示开发区应通过设计混合功能区空间模式、保障基础教育资源公平布局、建立高水准的轨道交通网络、避免冒进的土地城镇化等方式实现快速持续发展。

The projection of population distribution has an outstanding reference value for the development of urban development zones on spatial expansion,municipal facilities,and public services.Taking Xi′an High-tech Development Zone as an example,based on the censuses data in 1982,1990,2000,and 2010,as well as data of the land use and the main urban area changes,the Grey Theory is used to predict population and urban expansion.The Grid Method is used to map the population density map.The proportion method is used to project the medium and long-term population distribution.The study found that the population distribution of the urban development zone still distributed concentrated in 2020.Moreover,the population distribution in 2035 spread to the southern suburbs of the development zone.The distribution of the 2050 population depends on many variables which we could not forecast right now.The study believes that population distribution prediction has an essential value for urban development zone planning.The development zone should be realized by designing the spatial pattern of mixed functional zones,ensuring the fair distribution of primary education resources,establishing a high-level rail transit network,and avoiding the excessive land urbanization.