雨量站网密度对洪水模拟及模型参数的影响

Impact of Rain Gauge Network Intensity on Flood Simulation and Model Parameters

以湿润地区呈村流域为研究对象,通过模糊聚类方法控制雨量站网密度,并基于新安江模型探究了站网密度对洪水模型模拟结果和模型参数的影响。结果表明,对于呈村流域,当雨量站网密度高于100 km^2/站,次洪模拟精度不会再随着站网密度的增大有显著的提高,同时也难以再通过参数优化得到改善;随着雨量站网密度的增大,新安江模型参数SM呈现增大的趋势,参数CS呈现减小的趋势;新安江模型参数在高雨量站网密度条件下表现平稳,裁撤少量雨量站后可沿用由高站网密度所率定的模型参数。

Taking Chengcun Basin in humid region as the research object,the rain gauge network density is controlled by fuzzy clustering method,and the influence of rain gauge network density on the flood simulation results and model parameters is investigated based on Xin anjiang Model.The results show that:(a)when the rain gauge network density is higher than 100 km^2 per station,the accuracy of flood simulation will not be significantly improved with the increase of network density,and it is also difficult to improve the accuracy through parameter optimization;(b)with the increase of rain gauge network density,the parameter SM of Xin anjiang Model shows an increasing trend,while the parameter CS shows a decreasing trend;and(c)the parameters of Xin anjiang Model are stable under the condition of high rain gauge network density,so the parameters determined by high rain gauge network density can also be used after cutting off a few rain gauges.