基于“事故-安全”平衡模型的安全分析法研究

Study on Safety Analysis Method Based on the “Accident-Safety” Equilibrium Model

为了研究系统安全与事故之间的转化过程与关系,分析了影响安全的各种因素,将其分类为促进系统安全的因素F人、F调控和F物和造成系统事故的因素f人、f阻力和f物,并构建了安全管理“事故—安全”平衡模型。把系统放在一个固定轨道上进行分析,在安全因素与事故隐患的共同作用下,该平衡模型不断动态变化,最终处于某动态平衡状态,该状态分为安全段、平衡段、事故段,在不同的阶段会导致不同的后果。该模型指出事故的发生是动态平衡被打破,系统不发生事故不代表一定安全。在构建模型时,对其安全影响性明确分组,可更有效地区分安全影响因素的积极性与消极性。利用平衡力学中的平衡概念来帮助实现管理的优化,可更好地梳理目前的安全状态,更好地为安全管理提供思路。

In order to study the transformation process and relationship between system safety and accident and analyze various factors that affect safety“,accident-safety”equilibrium model for safety management is established based on the classification of factors promoting system safety covering Fp,Fc and Ft and factors resulting in accidents involving Fp,Fr and Ft.The system is placed on a fixed track for analysis.Under the combined effects of safety factors and accident potential,the equilibrium model is constantly changing dynamically.It is finally in a stage of dynamic equilibrium.The stage is divided into safety section,equilibrium section,and accident section.Different stages lead to different consequences.The model pointed out that the accident occurred when the dynamic equilibrium was broken and no accidents occurring in the system didn’t mean definite safety.When building the model,the safety impacts are clearly grouped,which can distinguish the positive and negative impacts of the safety factors more effectively.The concept of balance in mechanics is used to help achieve management optimization,which can better summarize the current state of safety and provide ideas for better safety management.