满足风险指标的电力系统可接纳风电预测误差评估

Assessment on Acceptable Wind Power Predictive Error in Power System to Meet of Risk Index

针对给定风险水平下系统可接纳的风电功率预测误差水平,建立了满足风险指标的电力系统可接纳风电预测误差评估模型。首先建立了以切负荷条件风险指标为主要评估指标、电压越限指标和线路传输功率越限指标为检测指标的综合指标体系;然后基于风电和负荷预测误差各自的特性,根据蒙特卡罗抽样和离散化方法分别对其进行处理;最后利用基于启发式方法的风电标准差求解部分和基于交直流的风险计算模型,求解风险约束下最大可接纳的预测误差水平。算例采用新英格兰10机39节点系统,仿真验证了所提方法的可行性与有效性。

For an acceptable wind power predictive error level at a given risk,an assessment model of acceptable wind power predictive error in power system to meet the risk index is established in this paper.First,a comprehensive index system is established,which takes the conditional risk of cutting load as the main assessment index and the voltage overlimit index and transmission line over-limit power as the test indexes.Then,considering the respective characteristics of wind power and load predictive error,these indexes are processed according to the Monte Carlo sampling and discret?ization methods,respectively.Finally,the standard deviation of wind power based on the heuristic method and the risk calculation model based on AC and DC are used to obtain the maximum acceptable predictive error level under risk con?straints.A New England 10-machine 39-bus system is used as a numerical example to perform simulations,which veri?fies the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.