输配电价下电网企业全周期动态投资发展机制

Whole-cycle Dynamic Investment and Development Mechanism of Power Grid Enterprises at Transmission and Distribution Price

输配电价改革对电网的投资规划、盈利模式等产生较大影响。运用全周期动态管理的理念,结合新电改对电网企业的要求,建立适应投资变动和负荷预测风险的投资机制模型。基于输配电价制定和实施流程,以某省级电网为研究对象,将投资计划变动和负荷预测风险导致的电量变化作为外部扰动风险,研究监管周期初始年、监管周期3年及下一个监管周期不同场景下的动态投资发展机制。算例表明,存量资产、新增投资和预测电量是核定输配电价的主要宏观影响要素,为预估下个监管周期的趋势和触发调整机制的可能性提供参考。该模型对于发挥政府监管职能,促进市场活力和指导电网企业投资发展实际工作具有积极意义。

The reform of transmission and distribution price has great influences on the investment,planning and profit mode of power grid.In this paper,by combining the requirements of new electricity reform on power grid enterprises,the idea of whole-cycle dynamic management is adopted to establish a model of investment mechanism,which is suit able for changes in investment and risk of load prediction.Based on the formulation and implementation process of trans mission and distribution price,one provincial power grid is taken as the research objective,and the changes in electric ity quantity due to changes ininvestment planning and risk of load predictionare taken as external disturbance risks.Then,the dynamic investment and development mechanism is studied under different scenes,i.e.,in the initial regula tion year,in a three-year regulation period,and in the next regulation period.A study case shows that stock assets,ad ditional capital and predicted electricity quantity are the main macroscopic factors affecting the formulation of the trans mission and distribution price,providingreference for forecasting the trend in the next regulation period and the possibil ity of triggering theadjustment mechanism.This modelis of positive significance to theregulation function of government,promotion ofmarket vitality,and guidance onthe investment and development of power grid enterprises in practice.