目标驱动的安全管理体系构建及仿真实验研究——“11311”安全管控体系构建的理论研究

Object-driven security management system construction and simulation experiment research: “11311” safety control system construction theory research

为了实现对复杂系统的风险的稳定和精确控制,本文以风险指标定量化分配为基本原则,采用体系闭环反馈控制为总的框架,基于公理化设计思想构建煤化工企业集团的安全管理体系,将风险管理问题转化为安全需求,通过需求域、功能域和结构域实现体系的骨架,再用发现问题解决方法(TRIZ)理论中的矛盾分析和物场分析进行详细的机制设计,最终实现包括安全战略、风险预控和安全机制的安全管理体系。并以国家能源集团宁夏煤业有限责任公司的“11311”为例,进行蒙特卡洛仿真和系统动力学仿真,仿真结果表明:没有反馈控制的体系风险尖峰总是不断出现,带有反馈控制的“11311”管控体系在线性假设下能实现系统风险概率稳定和风险目标值实现,为风险的目标管理提供理论依据。

Safety objective management of complex systems is difficult to achieve stability and realization of risk objectives.With the quantitative allocation of risk indicators as the basic principle,the closed-loop feedback control as the general framework,the construction of the safety management system of coal chemical enterprise groups based on axiomatic design idea,transforms risk management problems into safety requirements,and demand domain and function domain,a security management system including security strategy,risk pre-control and security mechanism was achieved from the use of the framework of the structure domain implementation system,and the contradictory analysis and material field analysis of TRIZ theory to carry out detailed mechanism design.Taking“11311”of Ningxia Coal Industry Limited Company of National Energy Group as an example,Monte Carlo simulation and system dynamics simulation were carried out.Results showed that the system risk peaks without feedback control were always appearing.The“11311”control system with feedback control could realize the stability of system risk probability and the risk target value under the linear assumption,and could be used as a theoretical basis for standard management.