基于模糊Bow-tie的含硫化氢天然气管道泄漏风险的定量评价探讨

Quantitative Risk Evaluation of the Hydrogen Sulfide-Containing Natural Gas Pipelines Leakage Based on Fuzzy Bow-tie

为对含硫化氢天然气管道泄漏风险进行定量评估,建立一种基于事故树、事件树结构的模糊Bow-tie模型。按照风险客观原因与控制失效建立事故树,转化为Bow-tie可视化表达,通过模糊逻辑得到定量结果。以某含硫化氢天然气管道为例开展定量评价,结果与运用中国石化安全风险矩阵评估得出的结果基本吻合。

In order to quantitatively evaluate the leakage risk of natural gas pipelines containing hydrogen sulfide,a fuzzy bow-tie model based on fault tree and event tree structure was established.The fault tree was established according to the objective cause and control failure of risk,which was transformed into bow-tie visual expression,and quantitative results were obtained through fuzzy logic.Taking a hydrogen sulfide weather pipeline as an example,the quantitative evaluation results were basically consistent with those obtained using SINOPEC's safety risk matrix.