“一带一路”国家绿色全要素生产率增长的俱乐部收敛

Green Total Factor Efficiency Growth in Countries Along the Belt and Road: Based on Club Convergence

“一带一路”沿线国家的绿色全要素生产率增长测度及其影响因素分析是有关中国能源安全的重要政策与理论问题。基于GML指数模型与俱乐部收敛方法,本文对“一带一路”沿线40个国家的绿色全要素生产率增长及收敛性进行测算,并利用面板Tobit方法考察绿色全要素生产率增长的外部影响因素。研究发现,绿色发展约束下,沿线国家整体绿色全要素生产率增长的年均增速为0.39%,分别形成一个效率稳定和一个效率增长的俱乐部。对于效率稳定俱乐部,对外开放程度的提高对绿色全要素生产率增长有显著负向影响;对于效率增长俱乐部,对外开放程度与化石燃料比重的提高均对绿色全要素生产率增长有显著负向影响,优化基础设施与增强工业发展则对其有正向影响趋势。本文建议中国与沿线国家合作时,应采取差异性方案,并加大基础设施方面的合作力度。

The measurement of green total factor productivity growth in the countries along the"Belt and Road"and the analysis of its influencing factors are important policy and theoretical issues concerning China's energy security.Based on Global Malmquist-Luenberger index model and Club Convergence method,this paper measures the energy efficiency and convergence of 40 countries along the"Belt and Road"countries,and then this paper uses the Panel Tobit method to investigate the external influencing factors of energy efficiency.The result shows that under the constraint of green development,the average annual growth rate of green total factor productivity in the countries along the line is 0.39%.These countries are divided into two clubs:a club with stable efficiency and a club with increased efficiency.For the efficiency stability club,improving the degree of opening up to the outside world has a significant negative impact on the growth of green total factor productivity.For the efficiency growth club,both increasing openness and the proportion of fossil fuels have a significant negative impact on green total factor productivity growth,while optimizing infrastructure and enhancing industrial development have a positive impact.It is suggested that China should adopt different plans and strengthen cooperation in infrastructure when it cooperates with the countries along the Belt and Road.