户用沼气区域适宜性模糊综合评价——以湖南省为例

Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Regional Suitability of Household Biogas——Taking Hunan Province as an Example

从气候、社会、经济、能源、技术5个方面,选取影响户用沼气区域适宜性的10个具体指标,建立户用沼气区域适宜性评价指标体系,利用改进层次分析法(AHP)确定指标权重,运用模糊运算求出综合评价值,对湖南省14个州市的户用沼气区域适宜性进行综合评价。结果表明:年平均气温、冬季平均温度、冬季日平均日照时数、65岁以上人口所占比例、初中及以上受教育比例、人均可支配收入、人均粮食产量、人均大型畜禽占有量、商品能源比例、人均农业机械占有量的权重分别为0.429 3、0.175 5、0.060 2、0.091 7、0.081 1、0.036 0、0.030 3、0.035 0、0.031 2、0.029 7;湖南省区域适宜性综合评价值从高到低排序依次为岳阳市>衡阳市>长沙市>湘潭市>益阳市>永州市>株洲市>郴州市>娄底市>邵阳市>常德市>怀化市>张家界市>湘西土家族苗族自治州。建议湘西土家族苗族自治州与怀化市加大沼气补贴金额,减轻农民负担;张家界市应该充分利用当地的温度条件,积极调整农业结构,增加畜牧业在农业中的比重,来满足对沼气发酵原料的需求。

From five aspects of climate,society,economy,energy and technology,10 specific indicators that affect the regional suitability of household biogas were selected to establish a household biogas regional suitability evaluation index system;the improved analytic hierarchy process(AHP)was performed to determine index weights,using fuzzy calculations to obtain comprehensive evaluation values of 14 cities in Hunan Province.The results showed that weights of the indicators including annual average temperature,average temperature in winter,average daily sunshine hours in winter,the proportion of people over 65 years old,the proportion of people with education above junior high school,per capita disposable income,per capita output of grain,per capita possession of large-sized livestock and poultry,proportion of commodity energy,and per capita share of agricultural machinery were 0.429 3,0.175 5,0.060 2,0.,0.081 1,0.036 0,0.030 3,0.035 0,0.031 2,and 0.029 7,respectively;the comprehensive evaluation values of regional suitability of major municipal cities in Hunan Province ranked as:Yueyang>Hengyang>Changsha>Xiangtan>Yiyang>Yongzhou>Zhuzhou>Chenzhou>Loudi>Shaoyang>Changde>Huaihua>Zhangjiajie>Xiangxi Autonomous Prefecture.Xiangxi Autonomous Prefecture and Huaihua City Should increase the amount of biogas subsidies and eased the burden on farmers.Zhangjiajie City should make full use of local temperature conditions,actively adjust the agricultural structure,and increase the proportion of animal husbandry in agriculture to meet the demand for biogas fermentation raw materials.It has a certain reference function for the promotion of household biogas in Hunan Province,effectively alleviating energy pressure,protecting the ecological environment and improving the living standards of farmers.