基于STIRPAT模型的长株潭城市群交通碳排放的影响因素及其区域差异

Influencing Factors and Regional Disparities of Transportation Carbon Emissions in the Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration Based on STIRPAT Model

为探究旅游发展和城市化进程中长株潭城市群交通碳排放的影响因素,采用“自下而上”的方法测算2005—2016年长株潭城市群交通碳排放量,利用STIRPAT模型及岭回归方法对长株潭城市群接待旅游人数、人均旅游收入、城镇化水平、单位GDP能耗及城镇化水平与其他因素的交互项与交通碳排放间的关系进行估计。结果显示:(1)长株潭地区的交通碳排放保持较高速持续增长,节能减排压力大;(2)人均旅游收入和接待旅游人数是促进长株潭城市群交通碳排放的主要影响因素,其次是城镇化水平,单位GDP能耗对交通碳排放有较明显的抑制作用;(3)城镇化水平与单位GDP能耗的交互项对长株潭城市群交通碳排放有抑制作用,而城镇化水平与接待旅游人数及人均旅游收入的交互项对长株潭城市群交通碳排放的促进作用较强。

In order to explore the influencing factors of transportation carbon emissions in the Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration during the process of tourism development and urbanization,this paper measured the transportation carbon emissions in the Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration from 2005 to 2016 by using“bottom-up”approach.And this paper aimed to estimate the relationship of number of tourists,tourism income per capita,urbanization level,energy consumption per unit of GDP,interaction between urbanization level and other factors and transportation carbon emissions,based on STIRPAT model and method of ridge regression.The results indicated that the transportation carbon emissions in the Chang-Zhu-Tan area maintain a relatively high and continuous growth.Per capita tourism income and number of tourists are the main factors of the carbon emissions in the Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration,and the second factor is the urbanization level.Energy consumption per unit of GDP has a significant inhibitory effect on transportation carbon emissions.The interaction between urbanization level and energy consumption per unit of GDP has a inhibitory effect on the transportation carbon emissions,and the interaction between urbanization level and the number of tourists and per capita tourism income have a strong effect on the transportation carbon emissions.