煤矿重特大水灾事故风险耦合研究

Risk Coupling Research on Major and Serious Flood Accident in Coal Mine

为了研究煤矿重特大水灾事故的风险情况,基于事故致因理论对煤矿水灾事故中的人、机、环、管四因素进行风险耦合分析,结合我国2000—2017年煤矿重特大水灾事故统计数据,采用N—K模型计算了不同因素耦合类型的事故风险值。计算结果分析表明:人的因素最为活跃,管理因素最为灵敏;在多因素耦合中,四因素耦合时事故风险最大,管理和环境因素对事故发生的影响最大;断开环境与管理之间的耦合,可使事故发生风险值显著下降。研究结果可为我国煤矿重特大水灾事故的防治提供借鉴。

In order to study the risk of major and serious flood accident in coal mine,based on the theory of accident causation,the risk coupling analysis of four factors including personnel,equipment,environment and management in coal mine flood accident was carried out,combined with the statistics of major and serious flood accident in coal mine from 2000 to 2017 in China,N-K model was used to calculate the accident risk values of each coupling situation.The results show that personnel factor is most active and management factor is most sensitive;the risk value of four-factor coupling is the greatest among muti-factor coupling situations;management and environmental factors have the greatest impact on the occurrence of accident;decoupling the environment from management can significantly reduce the risk of an accident.The research results can provide reference for the prevention and treatment of major and serious flood accident in domestic coal mine.