中美货币政策及引致的金融市场变局

Monetary Policies in the US and China and Financial Market Changes

文章分析了未来中美货币政策的演化及其对金融市场的影响。创新周期萧条期催生贸易保护主义,全球经济政治不确定性大幅提升。文章指出,中国将加强逆周期调节但不改货币政策稳健基调,美国经济进入本轮周期尾声,美联储开启降息周期但难阻经济衰退之势。全球资产价格有望上涨,且倘若坚持改革开放,中国有望迎来股债双牛。

The article analyzes the evolution of the monetary policies in the US and China,and concludes its impact on financial markets.The recession of the innovation cycle has promoted trade protectionism,and the uncertainty in global economy and politics has increased significantly.The article points out that China will strengthen counter-cyclical adjustment but maintain the steady of monetary policy.The US economy has entered the end of this cycle,and the Fed has started the interest rate cut cycle,but which can hardly stop the economic recession.Global asset prices are expected to rise,and China is expected to usher in a bullish market in both equity and bond markets on the condition that we insist on reforming and opening up.