对冲之策

The Polices of Hedging

各界对于逆周期调控政策有很多困惑,当前我国采取多元化的政策组合以应对贸易压力。展望未来,宏观政策在保持适度定力的同时仍有调整空间。财政政策或将进一步发力,贷款利率预计仍将继续下行,汇率也有望更加灵活。预计三季度我国经济仍处下探过程,四季度或将有所趋稳,但前提是房地产调控趋严的力度可控。

There are a lot of confusions on the counter-cyclical regulatory policies. At present, China adopts diversified policiesto offset the trade pressure. Looking into the future, macroeconomic policies still have room to adjust while keepingproperly focused. Fiscal policies may be further introduced, the loan interest rate is expected to keep going down,and the exchange rate will be more flexible. It is expected that China's economy will still be in a downward trend inQ3, and may stabilize in Q4, but which need controllable real estate regulations that have been ever-restraining.