基于Agent的群体突发事件建模与仿真研究

Emergency Group Incident Modeling and Simulation Based on Agent Technology

突发事件中事态的发展趋势与多种因素有关,事态的演化具有一定的规律。根据主体的影响因素,引入博弈机制,采用定量分析和数学形式描述,利用Agent技术构建突发事件行为演化模型,研究群体突发事件中群体行为,探究公众异常行为后的机制,并通过仿真平台进行仿真,得到相应的结论,为政府的应急管理提供理论依据。

The development trend of events in emergencies is related to many factors,and the evolution of events has certain regularity.According to the influencing factors of the main body,the game mechanism is introduced,quantitative analysis and mathematical description are adopted,and the evolution model of emergency behavior is constructed by using Agent technology.The group behavior in group emergency is studied,and the mechanism after public abnormal behavior is explored.The corresponding conclusions are obtained through simulation platform,which provides theoretical basis for government emergency management.