构建中国战略依托地带的框架设计

DESIGNING OF THE FRAMEWORK OF BUILDING CHINA’S STRATEGIC RELYING ZONE

有史以来,世界性的大国崛起必然要经历“国家—地区—世界”三个阶段,只有成功完成三个阶段的国家才能成为世界性的大国。今天,中国的崛起已经进入到了关键时刻,可以说中国最终能否成功崛起在很大程度上取决于如何构建战略依托地带,即“地区”发展阶段。本文通过研究历史上三个成功崛起的世界性大国构建战略依托地带的模式,即英国的“离岸制衡”、美国的“胡萝卜加大棒”和苏联的“大棒”模式,进而得出虽然它们的经验和教训具有许多中国值得借鉴和学习的地方,但这三种模式都不符合今天中国的现实情况。中国构建自己的战略依托地带应该通过在横向上与周边国家“建立利益共同体”、“构建共同的地区制度”和“塑造共有观念”以及在纵向上走“融入—塑造—变革”的道路,从点到面,由浅入深的方式来构建符合自身利益的战略依托地带。此外,在这个过程中我们不仅要强调构建中国战略依托地带的框架设计,也要强调在具体过程中的战略运作能力。

All along,the rise of a world-class power must go through three stages of“state-region-world”.Only countries that successfully completed the three phases can become world powers.Today,the rise of China has entered a crucial moment.To a large extent,the success of China’s rise ultimately depends on the stage of“the region”-that of building a strategic relying area.By studying the history of Britain’s“offshore checks and balances”,the“carrot plus stick”in the United States and the“big stick”model in the Soviet Union,we conclude that none of these three models are in keeping with China’s reality today.However,their experience and the lesson are still worth learning from China.Furthermore,according to China’s own situation,this article thinks that China should build its own strategic support zone,and in the horizontal direction,it should establish the“community of interest”,“establish a common regional system”and“create a common concept”with the neighboring countries.In the horizontal direction China should take the“into-shape-change”road,so that from the point to the surface,from shallow to deep.In addition,we should not only emphasize the framework design of building a reliance zone for China’s strategy,but also emphasize the capability of strategic operation.