金融周期下中国货币政策时变反应特征与调控效应研究

Research on Time-varying Response Characteristics and Regulation Effects of China Monetary Policy under the Financial Cycle

在传统货币政策规则基础上,引入金融周期,运用时变参数向量自回归的方法分析了金融周期下中国货币政策的时变反应特征与调控效果,结果表明:货币政策对金融周期的调控受宏观经济形势的影响。在金融危机时期,利率对金融周期更为敏感,而经济平稳发展时期,利率波动较小。同时,货币政策短期内能够起到维护金融稳定的效果,长期效果趋于弱化。因此,要根据金融周期与经济周期之间的匹配关系,利用相机抉择的货币政策调节金融形势,并做好相关政策的协调配合,以维护好长期金融稳定。

The financial cycle into traditional monetary policy rules is introduced by using the time-varying parameter vector auto-regressive method to analyze the time-varying response characteristics and regulation effects of China's monetary policy under the financial cycle,the results show that the regulation of the financial cycle by the monetary policy is affected by the macroeconomic situation.During the financial crisis,interest rates are more sensitive to the financial cycle.During the period of steady economic development,interest rate fluctuates less.At the same time,monetary policy can play the role of maintaining financial stability in the short term,and the long-term effects tend to be weakened.Therefore,according to the matching relationship between the financial cycle and the economic cycle,the monetary policy chosen by the discretionary choices is used to adjust the financial situation.And coordinate the relevant policies to maintain long-term financial stability.