气候变化背景下北极利益博弈与风险评估——建模与仿真

Arctic interest game and risk assessment in the context of climate change:modeling and simulation

鉴于北极风险评估中定量数据匮乏、定性知识难以定量化和权重要素确定中主观性强等困难,传统的风险评估方法无法有效解决。通过引入“云模型”实现了定性知识的量化表达;运用模糊层次分析法提高了权重的客观性;针对气候变化背景下北极区域响应及其地缘格局变化和利益博弈问题,运用上述改进方法和技术途径对北极地区利益博弈和安全风险进行了评估建模和实验仿真,提出了一些研究见解和决策咨询信息。

Due to the lack of quantitative data regarding Arctic risk assessment,the difficulties in quantifying qualitative knowledge,and the subjectivity in determining weight factors,the traditional risk assessment methods cannot be effectively solved.Therefore,in this paper the quantitative analysis of qualitative knowledge is realized by introducing the “cloud model”.First,the objectivity of the weights is improved by the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP).Next,in response to the change of the Arctic regional response and its geopolitics and the game of interests under the background of climate change,the above methods and techniques are improved.This paper then presents an evaluation model and experimental simulation of interest games and security risks in the Arctic,and proposes some research opinions and information pertaining to decision-making consultation.